4 Reasons To Consider Deckers.txt

4 Reasons To Consider Deckers

Shares of Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), maker of UGG boots, are down over 50% during the past six months. As shown in the chart below, this valuation is close to an all time low for DECK. The warm weather was not good for DECK as it reduced demand for UGG boots. CEO Angel R Martinez said on the Q1 conference call:

For the UGG brand, as I mentioned, we believe that the extended period of warm weather throughout the first quarter has adversely impacted coldweather UGG brand boot sales. However, we also believe that the UGG brand continues to make important inroads, developing a more meaningful spring season business.

If we get a more normal winter in 20122013 DECK should benefit. DECK traded over 14 million shares. DECK has just 38.5 million shares outstanding, so the 14 million share turnover represents a significant portion of the shares outstanding. This was the highest volume day since 2008. The high short interest means that DECK is a candidate for a short squeeze if any positive news emerges. Also, short sellers may decide to cover because they have been proved correct and it no longer makes sense to stay short DECK. The cheap valuation, potential change in weather, capitulatory trading action, and high short interest all make DECK a compelling buy.

How to Save Your Sanity During Life Transitions.txt

How to Save Your Sanity During Life Transitions

Life is full of changes and transitioning from one stage or position to another is a natural part of daily living. Unfortunately, some of those changes like divorce, job loss, or the death of someone close to you are imposed on you most often by circumstances beyond your control. What more such imposed changes often happen in the blink of an eye.

One minute you’re securely employed, and the next minute you’re packing up your desk because the company’s been sold. One minute you’re happily married, and the next your spouse is saying that he or she doesn’t love you anymore. One minute you’re laughing with your sister, and the next you’re watching her slip away on a hospital bed. Such unexpected events can leave you emotionally and spiritually reeling.

On the other hand, you often welcome life transitions such as marriage, improved career status as positive changes because you have long desired and planned ahead for them. You are full of excitement when you get married or welcome a new baby into your family after months of expectation and planning. Your joy knows no limit when you get that new job or career that you have always wanted or move to your recently purchased new home. However, though positive, these desired life transitions can also take their toil on you in significant ways. Mourning involves acknowledging that something you owned or an old way of life is gone. It may be an old job, a loved one or a state of singleness (for a new marriage). Adequate mourning in your own way is essential if you are to successfully move forward after the period of change. Identify key achievements or acquisitions in the past that you are leaving behind. If you are moving to a new home, create an album of memories and have a goingaway party. If the loss is an imposed one, try and find noble causes to celebrate even though it may be challenging.

Life transitions could be challenging, but with the right attitude and perspective, you can stay sane through the change and live an enriched life on the other side.

Should Investors Sprint to Buy or Stand Pat.txt

Should Investors Sprint to Buy or Stand Pat

Last night on CNBC Mad Money, Jim Cramer said he sees accelerating earnings growth from shoe companies and Nike, Inc (NKE) in particular. Nike has lagged the performance of Deckers (DECK) and Skechers USA (SKX) by a very wide margin, which could be a buying opportunity according to Cramer because Nike is best of breed. Cramer sees the bull market in shoes to continue and cites rising sales from shoe retailers, although they are not the best way to play the trend.

we want to own best of breed, right? Best of breed in the area that has the most exposure to this bull companies that actually make the shoes. Remember DSW wasn so hot. Finish Line wasn so hot. Foot Locker was not so hot. See, we need the ones that are hitting it out of the park. Companies like Nike and Deckers, Skechers and Madden. I already gotten behind Deckers, the makers of Uggs and Skechers, two stocks that have already given us impressive gains. I not disavowing them. Uhuh. No way. But right now you want to own the best of breed; the best of the best. And there no doubt in my mind what that is, Nike is the global king of footwear with the most market share and huge opportunities in emerging markets. The company has a fabulous longterm story. It one of the most recognizable and beloved brands in the world got the best geographic diversity of the four companies we looking at. Just 43% of its sales come from North America. 75% from Skechers, 89% for Deckers. 96% for Steve Madden. Plus, Nike hasn run as much as the others. It up just 55% in the last year. Versus 419% for Skechers. 172% for Deckers. And 154% for Steve Madden. Those are all good stocks. But Nike the only one that hasn traveled up to nosebleed heights. Now, Nike just reported a fabulous quarter last Wednesday. Earnings of $1.01 per share, beating the street consensus estimate by 12 cents. On sales up 6.6% the year over year. Now, I know other sales were up better Goldman Sachs points out in a terrific Conviction Buy report, over the past decade Nike stock has seen not one but two periods of big gains that have lasted for multiple quarters. Both times those gains were driven by earnings acceleration. And that where Nike is again right now. Its earnings growth is picking up, after several quarters of flattish growth. And that where NIKE is again right now. Its earnings growth is picking up. After several quarters of flattish growth. As Nike earnings growth moves into the double digits, courtesy of recovering economies around the globe and the bull market in shoes CNBC Mad Money 3/22/2010

Clearly, Cramer is bullish on shoe makers and later he continues to say that he is bullish on future quarterly sales of Nike as well thanks to the company own future sales estimates as well as a marked drop in inventory reported in their last quarter. In addition, the upcoming warm weather months will be full of sales catalysts for Nike including March Madness, the NBA Playoffs, Wimbledon, the Boston Marathon and the World Cup to name a few.

This evidence works to support Goldman research report claiming Nike could be coming back around on a traditional cycle where earnings start to accelerate after a period of slow growth. Yearly earnings dating back to 2008 have come in at $3.74, $3.81, and $3.82 (est.). However, analysts estimates are quickly rising after last quarter strong performance with 18 of 21 analysts tracked by Yahoo finance having raised estimates in the last 30 days, and the acceleration may be just beginning.

With that being said, we currently have a Fairly Valued rating on NKE as the valuation is actually approaching the upper end of its historically normal ranges. For example, over the last ten years (roughly the same time frame as the Goldman report) NKE has traded for a pricetocash earnings multiple of 13.0x to 19.8x, but given the current fundamentals it trades near the upper end of the range at 19.3x. Furthermore, the current pricetosales per share stands at 1.92x, which compares to the historically normal range of 1.35x to 2.04x. So, even if you incorporate current growth estimates for the next year, the company is far from undervalued. Nike is certainly seeing fundamentals improve, but according to our methodology much of that has already been pricedin. We think it is reasonable for Nike to trade for a premium to other shoe companies (as it does to Deckers and Madden) because of their global market share and their potential for growth, but an investor must realize the market is currently paying a comparatively high price to what it has historically paid..

Bad News For Deckers Lululemon Athletica inc.txt

Bad News For Deckers Lululemon Athletica inc

That the sound of Deckers (DECK) investors checking their account balance today The stock is down 8% in early morning trading after a downgrade by Sterne Agee. The boutique research firm noted that its channel checks indicate a weak environment for Deckers Outdoor UGG boots.

According to the report, individual retailers are seeing less demand for the with the fur which is especially bad news during the holiday retail blitz. As with most specialty retailers, the fourth quarter represents the most important season for earnings so if the assessment from Sterne Agee is accurate, DECK could turn out to be a major disappointment for investors.

According to the report, the weakness could hurt 2012 earnings as well. A fundamental shift in consumer tastes and retailer inventory decisions could dampen the longterm outlook and consequently the earnings multiple investors are willing to pay to own this growth stock From Sterne Agee:

The disappointing results will likely lead to 1Q12 cancelations due to adequate current inventory levels, and a much more conservative approach to fall 2012 orders. Change in consumer buying patterns this year is likely to affect the cadence and nature (backlog v. replenishment) of 2H12 orders.

The good news for DECK investors is that the stock isn extremely overpriced. The stock price has grown more than 400% in just over two years, but earnings expansion has kept pace enough to keep the stock at a relatively reasonable price point.

Using the current price (accounting for this morning gap lower), DECK is trading for less than 15 X 2012 earnings expectations of $5.95 per share. Analysts are assuming 18% earnings growth from 2011 to 2012 so the multiple of 15 is inline with the growth expectations.

But considering the fickle nature of highend apparel shoppers along with a challenging economic environment it easy to see how analyst estimates could turn out to be drastically overstated. If the UGG brand is truly becoming (borrowing the term from the downgrade report), Deckers could be presented with the choice of killing margins to move product or watching their primary revenue stream evaporate.

This standard pricing decision is difficult for typical retailers who face a traditional supply / demand curve featured in most economic textbooks. But in the world of fashion and apparel, there is an additional level of complexity.

Luxury or premium buyers actually prefer to pay a higher price for specialty retail items. Whether it is because of the perceived value associated with a higher price, or because wearing a premium brand cements their affluent image, the traditional supply / demand curve can be inverted as higher prices drive more demand from highend consumers.

But if Deckers UGG boots lose their luster with affluent customers, lowering the price won be very helpful in generating more revenue. Across the globe, the middle class has been shrinking. Even a discounted pair of UGG boots will still be more expensive than lowend apparel offerings so it unclear exactly who Deckers would be targeting if it lowered prices to increase demand.

Ironically, the same paradox can be true about the stock. Since DECK has been a momentum stock for so long, a major break in the stock price could send its shareholder base running for the hills. Momentum traders no longer want anything to do with the stock, and DECK is still too expensive (and uncertain) to capture a value investor attention.

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Deckers downgrade also raises questions about other highend retailers.

Is demand for UGG boots falling because of a change in consumer taste or because affluent consumers are spending less? Is the weakness confined to apparel or are other retail channels experiencing weakness? If DECK is symptomatic of the entire highend retail area, is this a temporary pullback or a more serious demand issue? Looking at a few different luxury or premium retailers, there are certainly pockets of weakness to be concerned with:

Tiffany Co. (TIF) has fallen below the 200 EMA and investors are only willing to pay 15X next year expected earnings

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Lululemon Athletica (LULU) gapped lower after a disappointing earnings release and now appears to be following through on the bearish pattern. The Mercenary Live Feed set up a bearish put spread to take advantage of this decline.

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Polaris Industries (PII) is still trading in a healthy pattern, but analysts expect earnings growth to decelerate from near 50% in 2011 to 19% next year.

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We already seen significant weakness in retail companies catering to the middle class. If the upperend retailers begin taking it on the chin as well, it will be a major blow to our consumerdriven economy and in turn to the broad market trends.

Don forget that protection of capital is our primary objective

Disclaimer: This content is general information only, not to be taken as investment advice or invitation to buy or sell securities. As active traders, we may or may not have positions in securities mentioned. For full disclaimer click here

Deckers’ Wild Ride Creates Interesting Opportunity.txt

Deckers’ Wild Ride Creates Interesting Opportunity

After falling to roughly $40 per share from its highs over $100 per share achieved last year, Deckers (DECK) continues its wild ride. The firm, famous for its Ugg boots and Teva sandals, has fallen out of favor after posting weakerthanexpected performance and slashing guidance, while building up considerable inventory. We think the most important question for investors going forward is whether Uggs were just a fashion fad or if the weak winter results at Deckers were merely a onetime hiccup caused by unseasonably warm weather?

We tend to think Uggs have become a staple of American fashion. Nordstrom (JWN) continues to prominently display boots in the women’s shoe section next to other hot brands like Sperry, Tory Birch, and Sorel. In fact, we’ve seen no evidence, other than weakerthanexpected sales, to support the thesis that Uggs aren’t in fashion any more. The sheepskin boots are surprisingly practical, providing comfort, warmth, and dryness. Still, such attributes are unnecessary without cold weather and snow. Interestingly, we think there’s a chance the mild winter of 2011 will lead to some pentup demand surfacing through the course of winter 2012. We also see lots of new styles, particularly in leather, that are diversifying away from the classic Ugg fur boot.

Not only does the women’s category look strong going into the winter season, but we also believe the men’s segment will perform fairly well, too. The classic Ugg boot look simply isn’t for most men, so we were excited about the firm’s introduction of more masculine styles at elevated price points. Though the firm will have to deal with heavilyentrenched players like Timberland, Red Wing, and the North Face, Deckers’ CEO Angel Martinez has noted many times that men like the soft insides of Ugg boots but not the exterior. We’re optimistic that cold weather could give sales a meaningful push in the right direction.

We like the recent demand trends within footwear at the moment, specifically the tremendous strength we’ve seen out of small private brands such as Tory Birch, athletic footwear giant Nike (NKE) and Sperry. We like Deckers, as its shares are relatively inexpensive (about 10x forward earnings) versus its more expensive peers like Nike (nearly 19x forward earnings) and VF Corp (nearly 17x forward earnings). We think shares have fantastic upside potential, particularly in the event of a more normal winter. However, we won’t consider them for our Best Ideas portfolio until its technical and momentum indicators begin to shape up.

Source: Deckers Wild Ride Creates Interesting Opportunity

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More.)

Enjoy Australian Lifestyle On Ugg Boots.txt

Enjoy Australian Lifestyle On Ugg Boots

UGG Australia is a brand, referring to trendy Australian sheepskin boots. People who live in the rural areas of Australia have been long familiar with these shoes. Sheep shearers own the best part of sheepskin. They like to manufacture shoes, slippers or boots from that raw material. But the name of UGG becomes wellknown for a large proportion of people after World Wars. Aviators keep their feet warm in highlatitude space via sheepskin boots from UGG. People got to know perfect warmth on this kind of footwear then.

Even though people have heard of sheepskin shoes crafted from Australian Merino sheepskin, seldom people purchased as the styles are quite common, even ugly. Surfers on Californian seaside only considered these shoes as necessities to make feet become warm quickly after leaving from water. Those talented designers developed new styles. They were engaged in boots, slippers and many casual shoes designs. However trend changes, fashion experts have held on to the principles of simplicity and comfort till now. It is exactly the simplicity that makes these sheepskin shoes win great success.

Another big change on the reputation during the developing process of UGG is attributed to Oprah Winfreya beautiful talk show host. She considered ultra style as her favorite style. Besides this, she featured Australian boots three times on her show, which helps nearly everybody in US to know UGG.

Love them or hate them, UGG boots always set the new trend on footwear. The plebs can afford these shoes. They get chances to share the same shoes with their favorite stars. Sense conveyed on these simple designs is sophisticated, yet fashionable. Precisely speaking, what has been brought here by ugg boots has beyond fashion. It is Australian lifestyle or culture. Fortunately, the rest of the world likes to enjoy it.

A Name Of Comfort And Style.txt

A Name Of Comfort And Style

Ugg boots came into existence lot many years ago in Australia where sheepherders used to wear these when they used to be in extremes of climate while working. These shoes had their own special features of being warm and making for a comfortable wear without getting moist. These boots are designed specially for the women of today in various styles and designs and each day new designers are working on the latest styles and designs to bring about something new to the already existing huge collection of this brand. Most of the women are conscious of their looks and they like to have a choice and selection of the classic footwear for parties, offices or personal meetings. There are other brands too that might offer the same deal, but most of them go down on quality. Hence it is very important to known the genuine Ugg boot before going ahead and making the final decision. Though these boots are a bit expensive but they are worth the investment as they will last really long and provide you extreme comfort and style.

As a result of deep study on the designs and styles of the Ugg boots, there came a variety which came to be known as Ugg Roslynn boot. These are the new ones which have been introduced in the market and are gaining fame and recognition at a faster pace than any others. The structure and design is as comfortable as the old classic ones but the difference arises in terms of the zip that is provided on the inner side of the shoe along with the Eva sole. Though being slightly more expensive than the other varieties, these boots have made a mark on many. One can easily define them as sexy, flamboyant and cute apart from being stylish, durable and comfortable. There are so many designs available that you are bound to find one that caters to your needs and compliments the clothes that you are wearing. The best part about these shoes is their insulation feature. Most of these are worn in winters and wearing them with a right selection of jeans or any thermal lower could be the best option. A lot of people in the American countries where the temperatures are below 0 degrees have made these boots their most lovable brand. They now have no fear of getting their feet or toe fingers swollen in those extreme temperatures. The Ugg roslynn boots are available in two basic colors black and grey. Macy’s also offers prom dresses for any younger woman. Dress plays an important role in describing your mood. If you are happy, your dress should have the same bright color. Holiday TShirts Ideas can mak . This includes the likes of, sprawling dining brands or household fashion names; it has got harder for people to maintain their individuality as everyone seems to be . Lewis Nov 4th 2013 Modern furnishings can look wonderful in different rooms and houses. Furniture items can also be used as premier decorative pieces. Try to go modern when you decide to spruce up your abode. It will ensure that the space looks well thoughtout with clea . Men are sexy. Of course, women are quite sexier than men.

The Difference Between Ultimate Ultra Ugg Boots.txt

The Difference Between Ultimate Ultra Ugg Boots

UltraWhile Ugg Ultimate boots cater to daytoday wear and provide moderate warmth, the Ugg Ultra Collection focuses on extreme athletic outdoor use in cold, wet and snowy conditions. To create this line, Ugg teamed with Hoka, a French designer of long distance trailrunning shoes. In contrast to the stylefocused suede outers of Ugg Ulimate boots, Ultra boots feature slick waterproof shells, which also lends them a more utilitarian design sensibility. These shoes have subzerorated soles about 2.5 times as thick as standard outsoles, specially designed for impact absorption. Like Ultimate styles, Ultra boots feature the company’s trademark sheepskin lining.

VarietyWhen it comes to variety, Ugg’s Ultra line far outclasses its Ultimate line. As of May 2013, Ugg only offers one basic style of Ultimate boots, though they come in women’s, kid’s and toddler’s sizes, with chestnut, chocolate and black color options. Meanwhile, the Ultra Collection encompasses three different styles for men and three for women. Men’s Hearst and women’s Celeste styles are short boots, while men’s Auden and Barklay and women’s Marien boots feature stacks about as high as the Ultimate line. Women’s Ugg Ultra Klarissa boots present an especially high option, with a collar that reaches between the shin and knee. Color options for the Ultra line include black, brownstone, navy and charcoal for men and black, chestnut and stout for women. It should not be used as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. LIVESTRONG is a registered trademark of the LIVESTRONG Foundation. Moreover, we do not select every advertiser or advertisement that appears on the web sitemany of the advertisements are served by third party advertising companies.

Josef Seibel Shoes.txt

Josef Seibel Shoes

Josef Seibel shoes certainly know how to travel well. After all, many of them take their first flights out of Germany (where they are made) when they are very young! Such experience seems to endow these shoes with a travelfriendly sensibility. More and more people have discovered that, no matter where they go, they are glad to have Josef Seibel shoes along for the ride.

What makes these shoes such great traveling companions? Well, for one thing, they are very relaxing to wear. The shape of the foot is very important to those that design these shoes. The foot needs support on a constant basis, so Seibel shoes include excellent cushioning and ergonomic features. These elements keep feet safe even during the long walks that are hallmarks of so many vacations.

No one wants to travel without their nest friends. Josef Seibel shoes are made to withstand the rigors of years of use, meaning that they’ll be there when vacation time rolls around. They never take any time off from providing a solid foundation for your feet.

Josef Seibel Shoes: No Need to Get Up!

Even though Seibel shoes are great for people on the go, one need not go anywhere to get a pair of these great shoes. Many people have found shopping for shoes on the Internet a far more pleasant experience than trying to find good footwear at the mall. Good sites offer lengthy return periods to allow customers to determine whether their chosen shoes really work for them.

Beauty and the Beast Review.txt

Beauty and the Beast Review

After last week amazing stinger ending, this week truly set up Dexter new story for the season. While the new story is somewhat familiar, it still different enough, and intriguing enough, to make the rest of this season extremely entertaining. We been asked over and over what the deal was going to be with Julia Stiles.

Last week revealed the answer when her character appeared in the Roadkiller house just as Dexter was finishing him off. She was battered and barely alive and a new dilemma for Dexter. Harry told Dexter in this episode that the first rule of the code is not get caught So of course, Harry recommended that Dexter just let this victim die, but for a serial killer Dexter has a big heart. It seemed that Dexter would have to deal with a victim that he has saved throughout this season but the story ends up being so much more complex than that. By the end of the episode, the story feels much more layered and complex than it first seemed.

Quinn continued to attempt to prove that the mysterious Kyle Butler is actually Dexter Morgan. There nothing suspenseful about Quinn story at all. His whole story, his suspicions, his relationship with Deb is all boring because he an uninteresting character unfortunately played by an actor with no charisma. The best possible thing that could happen this season would be that Dexter kills him in the season finale. The Laguerta story is bizarre and honestly a little too fillerish too. Was the Internal Affairs detective simply propositioning her? That all just sounded a little too weird.

How many traumatic events can Deb go through before she finally cracks? Her investigation hasn really become more intriguing but she did get hosed in blood from a victim she was trying to save in this episode. It a little odd that everyone called her a hero but didn question that she checked in when her situation was most certainly not clear. I say at least a few questions about her decision making were required. Will Dexter ever move out of Deb place? Maybe he could move him and his son in with his new friend and one time serial killer victim?

Some secondary parts of this episode weren as interesting as the characters deserve but Dexter new situation is completely riveting and the possibility of a bevy of additional killers all connected is extremely interesting. For some reason, Dexter nanny feels like she will end up being more important to Dexter story this season than just being the nanny. It hard to say what part she will play in the story at this point but there something else there for sure. The biggest failure in this season so far is that the show is a third of the way through before the real story finally started.

I have to disagree with the review about Quinn’s character and lack of charisma.

I think the actor does a fine job and the character is interesting.

Now that he has followed the FBI agent to the safe house where the son of the Trinity Killer lives, I’m sure he will show the picture of Dexter to see if he is Kyle Butler.

But my question is, will the son give Dexter away? I mean, Dexter did do the kid a favor last season by sticking up for him to Trinity.

I definately can’t wait for the next episode.

1) I think that the AI investigator was trying to establish if LaGureta has a relationship with the detective that got his ass kicked. Remember disclosure was an issue when she and Angel started dating and they got married it avoid disciplinary action.

2) Deb called clear because she felt she had no choice bad judgment maybe, actionable, no. Also, I don’t think she was broken up about the guy getting his throat cut so much as she was worried that if he died she would loose a witness.

3) Quinn is annoying. He is a poor mans Dokes. I really wish they would have gone the route the novels did and kept Dokes around. It would be more interesting if Angel or Vince were on to Dexter since their friendship would cause more conflict. Quinn is totally disposable and we all know it and that is what makes his story line such a drag.

4)I really hope Stiles doesn’t end up on Dexter’s table in the end. Way too predictable. Maybe he’ll put her on “The Harry Path”?

Awesome episode! I loved the reveal that there are more killer involved. I’m wondering if any of the other’s visit the dump site? That would probably be a good place for Dexter to lie in wait and learn who they are. I don’t mind that Quinn’s suspicions of Dexter are similar to Doakes’. It creates more tension when someone is close to finding out his secret.

Rheul . I don’t think he’ll try putting her on the “Harry Path”. Hopefully he learned his lesson with Miguel Prado and won’t repeat that mistake. I also don’t think he’ll kill her either. So I’m not really sure what will happen. But I’m sure she’ll help him find the others, just maybe not kill them herself.

1) I think that the AI investigator was trying to establish if LaGureta has a relationship with the detective that got his ass kicked. Remember disclosure was an issue when she and Angel started dating and they got married it avoid disciplinary action.

2) Deb called clear because she felt she had no choice bad judgment maybe, actionable, no. Also, I don’t think she was broken up about the guy getting his throat cut so much as she was worried that if he died she would loose a witness.

3) Quinn is annoying. He is a poor mans Dokes. I really wish they would have gone the route the novels did and kept Dokes around. It would be more interesting if Angel or Vince were on to Dexter since their friendship would cause more conflict. Quinn is totally disposable and we all know it and that is what makes his story line such a drag.

4)I really hope Stiles doesn’t end up on Dexter’s table in the end. Way too predictable. Maybe he’ll put her on “The Harry Path”?

I too disagree about Quinn’s character being boring or the actor having a lack of charisma. I think he’s doing a fine job. Yes, we’ve seen this before with Doakes, but in a situation where everyone around you are detectives, don’t you think this would happen again? I agree it adds tension to the story and a little more drama.

Rheul: I have to completely disagree with you on the IA investigator. He was totally propositioning LaGuerta. “I’m more interested in what caused the fight.” Why would he be trying to show that she and Angel have a relationship? Everyone knows that they’re married now. They went before the chief and argued their case. So the IA guy knows they’re married. He’s just looking to get a blowjob from the “best blowjob” giver in Miami. I can’t wait until LaGuerta and Angel take this prick down (no pun intended).